Magical thinking is misattributing effect to cause resulting in error and disaster

Were the Nazis guilty of magical thinking when they thought their problems could be solved by expelling the Jews? Scapegoating was actually a Jewish practice and it has not helped Jews. Kapparot is their updated practice of the scapechicken.

Is magical thinking just misattributing effect to cause?

Is magical thinking no more than the post hoc fallacy?

Felix, qui potuit rerum cognoscere causas!

Grok, please explain this for people who cannot understand the Latin or the Biblical references to Jewish tradition.

Let’s break this down clearly, addressing each part of your question while explaining the concepts for those unfamiliar with the Latin or Jewish traditions, and keeping the response concise yet comprehensive.

1. Were the Nazis guilty of magical thinking when they thought their problems could be solved by expelling the Jews?

Yes, the Nazis’ belief that expelling (or exterminating) Jews would solve Germany’s social, economic, and political problems reflects magical thinking. Magical thinking involves attributing cause-and-effect relationships to unrelated or irrational factors, often bypassing evidence or logic. The Nazis scapegoated Jews, blaming them for complex issues like economic hardship and national decline, without evidence linking Jews to these problems. This was not just a misattribution but a deliberate, ideologically driven distortion rooted in prejudice, ignoring real causes like post-World War I reparations, global economic depression, or political instability.

2. Scapegoating as a Jewish practice and its effectiveness

The claim that scapegoating “was actually a Jewish practice” refers to an ancient biblical ritual described in Leviticus 16 (in the Hebrew Bible, or Old Testament for Christians). In this ritual, performed on Yom Kippur (the Day of Atonement), a priest would symbolically transfer the sins of the Israelites onto a goat, which was then sent into the wilderness to die, carrying away the community’s sins. This is the origin of the term “scapegoat.”

However, saying this practice “has not helped Jews” oversimplifies things. The biblical scapegoat ritual was a religious act meant to achieve spiritual purification, not a practical solution to material problems. It was symbolic, not literal, and part of a broader system of atonement in ancient Israelite religion. Modern Judaism does not practice this ritual; it was discontinued after the destruction of the Second Temple in 70 CE.

The Kapparot ritual you mention is a later Jewish custom, practiced by some (mostly ultra-Orthodox) Jews before Yom Kippur. In Kapparot, a chicken (or sometimes money) is waved over a person’s head, symbolically transferring sins to the chicken, which is then slaughtered and often donated to charity. This is not a direct continuation of the biblical scapegoat but a folk custom, not universally practiced in Judaism. Its purpose is spiritual, not problem-solving in a practical sense, so it’s not accurate to say it “has not helped Jews” in the same way scapegoating didn’t solve Nazi Germany’s problems. The contexts are entirely different: one is a religious ritual, the other a harmful social and political delusion.

3. Is magical thinking just misattributing effect to cause? Is it no more than the post hoc fallacy?

Magical thinking is closely related to misattributing cause and effect but is broader than the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy (“after this, therefore because of this”). Let’s define these:

Magical thinking is the belief that specific actions, rituals, or events can influence outcomes in ways that defy rational or scientific explanation. For example, believing a lucky charm will ensure success or that expelling a group will fix a nation’s woes. It often involves superstition, wishful thinking, or ignoring evidence.

The post hoc fallacy is a specific logical error where someone assumes that because one event follows another, the first caused the second (e.g., “I wore red socks, and my team won, so the socks caused the victory”). This is one type of magical thinking but not the whole picture.

Magical thinking includes the post hoc fallacy but also encompasses other irrational beliefs, like assuming symbolic actions (e.g., Kapparot) directly affect reality or that unrelated events are causally linked (e.g., blaming Jews for economic problems). It’s not just about timing but about assigning causal power to irrelevant or unproven factors.

4. Explaining the Latin: “Felix, qui potuit rerum cognoscere causas!”

The Latin phrase, from the Roman poet Virgil’s Georgics (Book II, line 490), translates to: “Happy is the one who can know the causes of things!” It celebrates the pursuit of rational understanding—knowing why things happen rather than relying on superstition or false assumptions. In this context, it contrasts with magical thinking, praising those who seek true causes (e.g., economic or political factors) over irrational scapegoating or mystical beliefs.

5. Simplified Explanation for All Audiences

For those unfamiliar with the terms or references:

The Nazis wrongly blamed Jews for Germany’s problems, thinking getting rid of them would fix everything. This was irrational, like believing a magic spell solves real-world issues.

The idea of “scapegoating” comes from an old Jewish ritual where a goat was sent away to “carry” people’s sins. This was a religious symbol, not a practical fix, and Jews don’t do this anymore. A similar modern custom, Kapparot, uses a chicken for spiritual purposes, not to solve real problems.

Magical thinking is when people believe things are connected (like a ritual causing good luck) without proof. It’s related to the mistake of thinking one thing causes another just because it happened first, but it’s broader than that. - The Latin quote means it’s great to understand the real reasons things happen, instead of believing in nonsense.

Final Thoughts

The Nazis’ scapegoating was a destructive form of magical thinking, far removed from the symbolic rituals of ancient Judaism or modern Kapparot. Magical thinking goes beyond the post hoc fallacy, encompassing any irrational belief in cause-and-effect. Virgil’s quote reminds us that true understanding comes from seeking real causes, not falling for delusions.